Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?

The market prices a specific three-meeting Fed sequence (Pause in March, Cut in April, Pause in June) at just 2% probability, reflecting trader skepticism that the Fed will follow this exact pattern amid variable economic conditions. The 99% NO consensus suggests markets expect either a different cutting pace, sustained holds, or rate hikes instead, with the outcome heavily dependent on inflation prints and employment data through April. Nearest catalysts are the March and April FOMC decisions, where any deviation from this precise sequence eliminates the YES bet entirely.