About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
Market strongly expects NO (97% NO).
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For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
- Price moved +0.6pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Mixed capital flow
SpaceX IPO odds are collapsing to 3% as May 2026 approaches with no indication the company plans to go public this year, despite the enormous valuation potential. Elon Musk has shown no urgency to IPO SpaceX while managing Twitter, Tesla, and other ventures, and the 24h decline of 2.9% reflects traders correctly pricing out this near-term catalyst as increasingly unlikely. The market effectively bets on either a surprise announcement within weeks or serves as a very cheap lottery ticket for contrarian IPO bulls.