Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 48% YES. Momentum is falling. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$108.33 (+108%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability48.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Falling24h Price Change: +2.4%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: CInformed flowPrice forming
- Price jumped +2.4pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Falling
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$522
Liquidity$18K
Current Probability48%
Resolves in5mo
Low VolatilityVol: 4.0% → 2.5%
165 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Good entry point — prices are stable with room to move
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AI Brief
Rate cut odds stand at a near-dead heat (48% YES) ahead of the June 18 FOMC meeting, with the +5.9% surge in YES probability over 24 hours signaling recent bullish momentum on rate relief amid softer economic data or dovish Fed messaging. The catalyst is the June meeting itself, where Powell's tone and economic projections will crystallize whether a cut materializes by September.