Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans YES at 72%. Momentum is strong up. Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$38.89 (+39%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability72.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Strong up24h Price Change: +29.5%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice forming
- Price jumped +29.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong up
- Volume trend: rising
- Price move: Price moved up to 67.1% from 54.0% baseline — 24% shift
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$26K
Liquidity$15K
Current Probability72%
Resolves in2mo
Low VolatilityVol: 12.3% → 5.8%
83 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
The 38% June 30 ceasefire odds reflect the market's view that conflict likely persists beyond mid-year despite mounting humanitarian and economic costs. US pressure, one side's deteriorating position, or accumulated fatigue could catalyze a breakthrough.
Anomalies
CriticalPricez=4.6