About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 87% NO. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$614.29 (+614%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability14.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -2.0%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price dropped -2.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Price move: Price moved down to 13.1% from 15.3% baseline — 14% shift
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$285K
Liquidity$141K
Current Probability14%
Resolves in22d
Low VolatilityVol: 6.0% → 3.3%
22 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 is priced at just 15%, indicating markets expect disruption to persist through month-end due to Iranian tension and regional instability. Key drivers include Iranian military actions and U.S./Israeli response posture. The April 30 deadline is imminent.
Anomalies
WarningPricez=3.3