About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (97% NO). Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$3233.33 (+3233%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability3.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.3%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice forming
- Price moved -0.3pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$17K
Liquidity$33K
Current Probability3%
Resolves in22d
Low VolatilityVol: 9.3% → 4.6%
22 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
With only 4% odds, the market sees virtually no scenario where Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by month-end given the entrenched Iranian political structure and current geopolitical equilibrium, though the modest 1.5% uptick hints at a small geopolitical risk premium being maintained through the April 30 expiration.