About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
Market strongly expects NO (96% NO). Large trader flow is active.
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For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
- Price moved -0.9pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Volume spike: Volume spiked 0% in 2h — unusual activity
- Large trader flow detected
US crude oil reserves falling to 350M barrels by May 1 is priced at just 4% YES, indicating the market expects reserves will remain well above this threshold despite geopolitical tensions with Iran and Trump administration policies. A drop to 350M would require a sharp drawdown of roughly 20M+ barrels from current levels in just three weeks, making it an extreme outcome that's currently underpriced relative to upside geopolitical risk. The May 1 deadline provides limited time for major supply disruptions to materialize, anchoring the market to the baseline expectation.