Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (100% NO). Momentum is strong down. Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Leadership Change wins+$-100.00 (-100%)
If Ceasefire wins-$100.00
Break-even probability0.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Strong down24h Price Change: -30.2%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice forming
- Price dropped -30.2pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong down
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$52K
Liquidity$21K
Current Probability<1%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 93.6% → 38.3%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert