Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 84% NO.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$525.00 (+525%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability16.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -3.0%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: BMixed flowPrice forming
- Price dropped -3.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Mixed capital flow
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$27K
Liquidity$26K
Current Probability16%
Resolves in22d
Low VolatilityVol: 11.3% → 5.4%
22 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
Israeli ground operation in Iran drops 7 points overnight to 16%, signaling trader belief that response remains limited to airstrikes or cyber; full invasion carries escalation risks deemed unlikely within 23-day window.