Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 87% NO. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$614.29 (+614%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability14.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -1.5%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved -1.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$35K
Liquidity$23K
Current Probability14%
Resolves in7d
Active tradingVol: 8.9% → 5.7%
7d to resolution. Active trading window — peak volatility expected.
Momentum building — watch for breakout signals
AI Brief
Military action against Iran by April 15 is priced at only 15%, suggesting market belief in continued brinkmanship without escalation in the next 9 days. The tight timeframe keeps this heavily discounted.