About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (95% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$1900.00 (+1900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability5.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -1.4%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved -1.4pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$23K
Liquidity$27K
Current Probability5%
Resolves in22d
Low VolatilityVol: 8.9% → 4.5%
22 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
Pete Hegseth's 6% odds to exit Defense by April 30 reflect the political costs of cabinet turnover early in an administration, with thin conviction on either side ($27k liquidity). The -0.4% move is flat, indicating the market sees him as entrenched through May despite any recent controversy.