Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (96% NO).
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$2400.00 (+2400%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability4.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.1%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: BMixed flowPrice stable for 19 days
- Price moved +0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Mixed capital flow
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$1K
Liquidity$61K
Current Probability4%
Resolves in3mo
Low VolatilityVol: 1.9% → 1.7%
113 days until resolution. Price movements are small and steady.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets4
AI Brief
Market consensus signals the Fed will hold rates steady through July 2026, with only 4% probability of a 25 bps hike and 1% of a 50+ bps move. The strong "no change" pricing at 81% reflects persistent inflation concerns balanced against economic slowdown risks, with the nearest catalyst being the July 29 FOMC meeting.