US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (95% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$1900.00 (+1900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability5.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +1.3%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved +1.3pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$45K
Liquidity$58K
Current Probability5%
Resolves in7d
Active tradingVol: 7.0% → 4.9%
7d to resolution. Active trading window — peak volatility expected.
Momentum building — watch for breakout signals
AI Brief
US Navy escort through Strait of Hormuz by April 15 is priced at 4%, with just 9 days to resolution indicating markets expect continued Iranian tolerance of US shipping rather than provocation requiring active escort deployments. The falling 0.9% trend suggests de-escalation pricing as the short deadline approaches.