Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (99% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$9900.00 (+9900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability1.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.1%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved +0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$85K
Liquidity$84K
Current Probability1%
Resolves in22d
Low VolatilityVol: 14.4% → 6.7%
22 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
Formal US war declaration on Iran by April 30 is priced at just 1% (near-zero), reflecting market skepticism that even heightened tension escalates to official war status in 3 weeks; diplomatic channels and congressional thresholds remain high barriers.