About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (96% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$2400.00 (+2400%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability4.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -1.6%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved -1.6pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$19K
Liquidity$15K
Current Probability4%
Resolves in1mo
Low VolatilityVol: 12.8% → 6.0%
53 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets4
AI Brief
Market expects SpaceX IPO by end of 2026 (94% probability), but sees a May 31 deadline as extremely unlikely (4%), suggesting Elon is deferring closer to year-end. If IPO occurs, consensus leans toward valuation above $2.0T (52%) but well above $1.0T (99% confidence), with narrow mid-range valuations ($1.2T-$1.4T) priced out. Nearest catalyst is any SpaceX or Elon announcement on IPO timing.