About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 33% YES. Momentum is strong down.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$203.03 (+203%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability33.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Strong down24h Price Change: -9.5%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: CMixed flowPrice forming
- Price dropped -9.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong down
- Volume trend: steady
- Mixed capital flow
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$4K
Liquidity$10K
Current Probability33%
Resolves in2mo
Low VolatilityVol: 6.8% → 3.6%
68 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets4
AI Brief
42% expect IPO by June 15, down sharply from likely higher levels weeks ago; the -10.5% move signals traders are abandoning the aggressive June deadline. September 30 is now consensus at 92%, pushing liquidity and conviction further out. Key catalyst: SEC comment letter timeline and Elon's announcements.