US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 81% NO. Momentum is rising. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$426.32 (+426%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability19.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Rising24h Price Change: +5.5%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price jumped +5.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Rising
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$19K
Liquidity$12K
Current Probability19%
Resolves in2mo
Low VolatilityVol: 18.7% → 8.4%
83 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
US-Iran ceasefire tied to oil hitting $120 prices at 19% YES, showing traders view an oil spike as less likely to trigger immediate diplomatic resolution than pure time-based deadlines. The +4.5% move indicates marginal Oil-driven bullishness, but liquidity is thin ($16k), suggesting this is a specialized macro hedge rather than core geopolitical positioning.