US recession by end of 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 33% YES.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$203.03 (+203%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability33.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +1.0%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: BMixed flowPrice stable for 196 days
- Price moved +1.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Mixed capital flow
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$6K
Liquidity$60K
Current Probability33%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 2.6% → 1.9%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
Recession odds stand at 32%, up 2% in 24 hours, suggesting traders are repricing downside economic risk. The outcome hinges on Fed policy trajectory, labor market resilience, and quarterly GDP reports through year-end, with employment data and monetary decisions serving as near-term catalysts for significant repricing.