US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Slight YES lean at 58%. Momentum is strong up. Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$72.41 (+72%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability58.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Strong up24h Price Change: +15.0%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActiveMature market (155d)
- Price jumped +15.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong up
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$30K
Liquidity$52K
Current Probability58%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.3% → 1.0%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Good entry point — prices are stable with room to move
AI Brief
The US-Iran nuclear deal market trades at 41% by year-end 2026, indicating roughly balanced uncertainty between negotiation progress and geopolitical friction under the current administration. Catalysts include ongoing diplomatic signaling and escalations in the Middle East, with nine months for a deal to materialize.