US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 45% YES. Momentum is strong up. Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$122.22 (+122%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability45.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Strong up24h Price Change: +21.0%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice forming
- Price jumped +21.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong up
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$31K
Liquidity$49K
Current Probability45%
Resolves in2mo
Low VolatilityVol: 3.5% → 2.3%
83 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Good entry point — prices are stable with room to move
AI Brief
The 26% probability reflects genuine but low probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal by end of June under current geopolitical tensions. The +4.5% 24-hour move suggests increased optimism around backdoor negotiations or Trump administration signaling. June 30 deadline provides six weeks for diplomatic progress, making this a mid-term uncertainty play.