ECB rate hike in 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans YES at 84%. Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$19.05 (+19%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability84.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: FlatVolume trend: risingLiquidity: CLarge Trader Flow: ActiveMature market (106d)
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Price move: Price moved up to 83.5% from 81.8% baseline — 2% shift
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$2K
Liquidity$15K
Current Probability84%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.9% → 1.3%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
Markets are pricing an 83% probability the ECB raises rates at least once before year-end, bolstered by persistent inflation concerns in the eurozone. The +2% move in 24 hours reflects growing conviction that tightening is inevitable, with upcoming ECB meetings and eurozone inflation data likely to confirm or challenge this consensus.
Anomalies
WarningPricez=2.6