The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical chokepoints for global energy markets. Located between Iran and Oman, it connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, serving as a transit route for approximately one-third of the world's seaborne crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Daily ship traffic through the strait is a key indicator of global energy flows, geopolitical stability, and economic activity in key markets. These prediction markets track the volume of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on specific dates and time periods. Markets forecast both single-day transit volumes and average daily transits over defined ranges. For example, participants might forecast whether daily transits will exceed 60 vessels, fall between defined thresholds (10–20 average daily transits), or meet specific benchmarks by a given date. **What drives Hormuz transit volumes?** Several interconnected factors influence prediction prices on these markets: - **Geopolitical tensions**: Regional conflicts, sanctions regimes, and military activity directly impact shipping patterns and vessel routing. - **Energy demand**: Global economic activity, seasonal factors, and demand from major trading partners shape crude oil and gas shipments. - **OPEC decisions**: Production quotas and member-state policy shifts affect cargo volumes originating from the Gulf. - **Shipping routes and diversion**: Alternative routes (Suez Canal, around Cape of Good Hope) become economically attractive under certain conditions, reducing Hormuz traffic. - **Weather and logistics**: Seasonal weather patterns and port congestion influence transit timing and volumes. - **Market futures data**: Oil and gas futures prices, shipping costs, and inventory levels provide signals about near-term energy supply expectations. Use these markets to forecast energy market dynamics and geopolitical developments affecting global oil and gas flows.