A parlay market chains multiple outcomes into a single prediction. All linked events must resolve as specified for the parlay to succeed. Rather than predicting individual events separately, you're forecasting a precise sequence of results—a strategy common in prediction markets where correlated outcomes create distinct opportunities. The example markets illustrate this structure: "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions?" links three sequential FOMC outcomes. Each decision contributes to the parlay's resolution. If even one decision differs from the chain, the entire parlay resolves NO. This creates a compound probability that reflects not just individual event likelihoods, but also their correlation and market risk. Parlay prices move based on several key factors: **Individual probabilities**: The likelihood of each linked event directly affects the overall market price. As economic sentiment shifts on the Fed's next move, all parlays containing that decision update in real time. **Sequence risk**: Markets price in the conditional nature of sequences. A "Pause–Pause–Cut" chain reflects both the probability each decision happens independently and the covariance between them. Unexpected economic data can shift all three probabilities simultaneously. **Historical precedent**: Fed decision patterns, market volatility, and inflation trends inform how traders weight each parlay. Sequences matching recent behavior tend to trade higher. **Liquidity and spreads**: Popular parlay sequences trade with tighter bid-ask spreads. Less-common chains may have wider gaps, affecting entry and exit costs. Parlay markets reward precise forecasting and understanding how events interconnect. They're useful for traders who believe multiple outcomes will occur in a specific order and want to express that conviction as a single market position.