Weather prediction markets offer a transparent way to explore global weather patterns and track probability-weighted outcomes across specific regions and cities. On Polymarket Trade, these markets cover diverse meteorological events, from temperature thresholds in major cities to precipitation forecasts and extreme weather scenarios. Common weather predictions available include temperature forecasts—such as whether Wellington's highest temperature will reach 10°C or 11°C on a given date, or temperature predictions for Tokyo at specific thresholds. These markets reflect aggregated insights from meteorological data and market participants worldwide, providing real-time probabilities for weather outcomes. Several factors influence price movements in weather prediction markets: **Historical climate data**: Seasonal patterns and long-term weather records establish baseline expectations for typical temperature ranges and precipitation in each location. **Real-time weather models**: Current atmospheric conditions and forecasts from meteorological agencies directly influence market pricing and probability assessments. **Geographic characteristics**: Latitude, altitude, coastal proximity, and terrain significantly affect local weather patterns and temperature variations. **Forecast time horizon**: Shorter prediction windows (1-7 days) generally show higher confidence, while extended forecasts incorporate greater uncertainty and volatility. **Seasonal and cyclical patterns**: Time of year, ocean cycles, and large-scale weather systems drive seasonal weather behavior and temperature expectations. Weather prediction markets provide a practical mechanism for understanding probability-weighted weather outcomes in real-time. Whether tracking temperature thresholds, precipitation patterns, or broader climate trends, these markets offer transparent pricing that reflects aggregate expectations from global participants.