About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 86% NO. Momentum is rising. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$614.29 (+614%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability14.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Rising24h Price Change: +2.9%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: CInformed flowPrice forming
- Price jumped +2.9pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Rising
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$1K
Liquidity$11K
Current Probability14%
Resolves in21mo
Low VolatilityVol: 4.5% → 2.7%
632 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets4
AI Brief
SpaceX market cap $1.6T-$1.8T at IPO is priced as unlikely at 14% YES, reflecting trader skepticism that the IPO valuation will land in this specific band. Either SpaceX won't go public by end of 2027, or the valuation will fall outside this narrow range. The narrow range and thin liquidity suggest this is a niche spec bet with limited conviction.