Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Slight YES lean at 59%. Momentum is falling.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$69.49 (+69%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability59.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Falling24h Price Change: -5.0%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: CMixed flowPrice stable for 41 days
- Price dropped -5.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Falling
- Volume trend: steady
- Mixed capital flow
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$114
Liquidity$46K
Current Probability59%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 2.0% → 1.7%
256 days until resolution. Price movements are small and steady.
Good entry point — prices are stable with room to move
AI Brief
Market bets on a Fed rate cut by December 2026, with YES at 62% implying traders expect easing in the second half of 2026. Recent -2.5% downmove suggests softening conviction, likely driven by stronger-than-expected inflation or employment data. Key catalysts ahead: Fed Chairman Powell's testimony, CPI/PCE inflation reports, and nonfarm payroll numbers will shape rate cut odds before the June 17 resolution date.