About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects YES (96%). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$4.17 (+4%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability96.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.1%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: AInformed flowPrice stable for 34 days
- Price moved +0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$33K
Liquidity$349K
Current Probability96%
Resolves in6mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.1% → 0.9%
206 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
Kevin Warsh is heavily favored at 96% for Fed Chair confirmation, reflecting Trump's direct pick and Senate Republicans' expected strong support by October. The trivial -0.1% move suggests near-certainty pricing with minimal remaining doubt about confirmation odds over the next 6 months.