Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 77% NO. Momentum is rising. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$316.67 (+317%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability24.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Rising24h Price Change: +7.0%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price jumped +7.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Rising
- Volume trend: rising
- Price move: Price moved up to 23.4% from 15.3% baseline — 53% shift
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$287K
Liquidity$107K
Current Probability24%
Resolves in22d
Low VolatilityVol: 15.3% → 7.0%
22 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets3
AI Brief
Market prices 15% risk of Iranian loss of Kharg Island (strategic oil hub) by end of April, down 2% in 24h; geopolitical tensions with Israel and potential regional escalation drive the tail risk, though current military/political trends suggest Iranian control remains stable.
Anomalies
CriticalPricez=8.2