Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (92% NO). Momentum is strong down. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$1150.00 (+1150%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability8.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Strong down24h Price Change: -19.0%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price dropped -19.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong down
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$35K
Liquidity$37K
Current Probability8%
Resolves in21d
Low VolatilityVol: 55.9% → 23.3%
22 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
Military action against Iran by April 30 jumps to 26% versus 15% for April 15, showing the market gradually pricing escalation risk over a two-week window. This spread suggests growing but still-unlikely military scenarios.