Will two people dissent the April Fed decision?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 32% YES. Momentum is rising. Predominantly retail flow.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$212.50 (+213%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability32.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Rising24h Price Change: +5.0%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: CRetail pressurePrice forming
- Price jumped +5.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Rising
- Volume trend: rising
- Retail pressure observed
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$179
Liquidity$4K
Current Probability32%
Resolves in21d
Low VolatilityVol: 7.8% → 4.0%
21 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
Two dissents from the April FOMC are priced at 27%, roughly 4x more likely than three, indicating the market views moderate disagreement as plausible but still the underdog scenario. The -5.0% 24h move favors the NO side, suggesting recent data or rhetoric shifted expectations toward fewer dissents; watch Powell's pre-meeting commentary and inflation prints through late April as the catalyst.