About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (98% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$4900.00 (+4900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability2.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.3%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved +0.3pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Price move: Price moved up to 1.5% from 1.3% baseline — 13% shift
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$59K
Liquidity$139K
Current Probability2%
Resolves in22d
Low VolatilityVol: 6.5% → 3.5%
22 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets1
AI Brief
Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by April 30 prices at just 1%, with only weeks remaining before deadline and no recent movement suggesting imminent return of the exiled shah's family member. Political barriers remain extremely high given current regime opposition. Near-term catalyst is the April 30 expiration date with minimal probability of fulfillment.
Anomalies
WarningPricez=2.6