About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (96% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$2400.00 (+2400%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability4.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.3%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved +0.3pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Price move: Price moved up to 4.1% from 3.7% baseline — 10% shift
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$19K
Liquidity$59K
Current Probability4%
Resolves in1mo
Low VolatilityVol: 4.2% → 2.6%
53 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets1
AI Brief
Reza Pahlavi at 4% YES by May 31 reflects traders' skepticism that the Iranian exile will attempt return despite regional instability, suggesting geopolitical barriers and security risks outweigh anti-regime sentiment as accelerants.
Anomalies
WarningPricez=2.9