Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 79% NO. Momentum is falling.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$376.19 (+376%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability21.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Falling24h Price Change: -3.5%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: BMixed flowPrice forming
- Price dropped -3.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Falling
- Volume trend: cooling
- Mixed capital flow
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$46K
Liquidity$46K
Current Probability21%
Resolves in22d
Low VolatilityVol: 4.6% → 2.7%
22 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets1
AI Brief
A UAE strike on Iran by April 30 carries 23% probability in a ~3-week window, with the price down 1.5% in 24h, signaling market reassessment toward lower escalation risk. The one-in-four odds reflect real but minority geopolitical tension rather than base-case expectations.