About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (99% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$9900.00 (+9900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability1.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.1%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved -0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$201K
Liquidity$117K
Current Probability1%
Resolves in22d
Low VolatilityVol: 5.4% → 3.0%
22 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets1
AI Brief
Market expects virtually zero chance of NATO withdrawal within 3 weeks despite Trump administration rhetoric; the 99% consensus reflects prevailing view that actual exit would face congressional/alliance friction. NATO tensions remain structural under Trump, making longer-dated withdrawal markets (Dec 31) more actively traded with 10% probability.