About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (97% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$3233.33 (+3233%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability3.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.8%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved -0.8pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Price move: Price moved down to 2.6% from 3.3% baseline — 21% shift
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$14K
Liquidity$107K
Current Probability3%
Resolves in23d
Low VolatilityVol: 8.8% → 4.4%
23 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets16
AI Brief
Ethereum reaching $3,000 in April carries only 3% odds despite $38K daily volume, suggesting this represents a deep out-of-the-money volatility bet. Traders are pricing in near-zero probability of a >$3K rally in the remaining April window.
Anomalies
WarningPricez=3.3