Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Slight YES lean at 64%. Momentum is falling.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$56.25 (+56%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability64.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Falling24h Price Change: -2.0%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: CQuietMature market (140d)
- Price dropped -2.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Falling
- Volume trend: cooling
- Quiet order flow
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$80
Liquidity$5K
Current Probability64%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 1.0% → 1.3%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
The Fed's policy rate reaching 3.25% or lower before 2027 carries 65% probability, suggesting markets expect cumulative rate cuts of 100+ basis points over 2026. The recent 4% decline in this market hints at shifting Fed expectations, with traders increasingly pricing in significant easing if economic conditions deteriorate further.