Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 81% NO. Resolves in 5 days.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$426.32 (+426%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability19.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.5%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: BMixed flowPrice forming
- Price moved +0.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Mixed capital flow
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$27K
Liquidity$86K
Current Probability19%
Resolves in4d
Active tradingVol: 4.0% → 3.7%
4d to resolution. Active trading window — peak volatility expected.
Momentum building — watch for breakout signals
Related Markets14
AI Brief
Rafael López Aliaga is priced at 18% for Peru's April 12 election, placing him third among the tracked candidates but notably up 2% in 24 hours, suggesting some late momentum. Peru's fractious politics often sees last-minute shifts before voting. The April 12 election will fully resolve all Peruvian candidacy markets simultaneously.