On April 28, 2026, Amsterdam will record a daily high temperature, and this prediction market isolates whether that maximum reaches exactly 12°C. The current 0% odds reflect overwhelming trader conviction that this specific temperature threshold is highly unlikely on this particular date in late spring. Historically, Amsterdam temperatures during late April average 13-15°C, with daily highs typically ranging between 11-17°C depending on prevailing wind patterns, cloud cover, and atmospheric pressure systems. A daily high of exactly 12°C would represent a notably cooler than average day for late April, but not extraordinarily cold or unprecedented for the season. The persistent zero price indicates traders expect either warmer conditions developing through the day (pushing the high above 12°C) or an unusually sharp cold snap that drives temperatures below 12°C, rather than landing precisely at the 12°C mark. Current sentiment reflects the statistical improbability of such a specific temperature outcome. Resolution occurs when the official Amsterdam weather station records close at midnight UTC on April 28, with the daily maximum verified against KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) official data.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Amsterdam's weather in late April sits at the critical transition between spring and early summer, with the Atlantic Gulf Stream and low-pressure storm systems heavily influencing daily conditions and seasonal patterns. The city lies at 52.4°N latitude, where April weather is characterized by rapidly increasing daylight hours (nearly 15 hours by month-end) and gradually warming temperature trends, though proximity to North Sea coastal regions moderates day-to-day temperature swings and introduces marine layer effects. The current 0% price reflects the mathematical difficulty of hitting exactly 12°C as a daily high: atmospheric temperature fluctuates continuously throughout daylight hours, and weather station readings represent discrete data points captured at specific measurement times and standardized measurement heights. For the daily high to be exactly 12°C, all conditions would need to converge tightly—weather warm enough to reach above 11°C but constrained enough to stay below 13°C, with the peak hour registering right at that threshold. Historically across KNMI records, this outcome occurs roughly 5-8% of April days in Amsterdam data, suggesting the 0% market price may be slightly overweighting the improbability of this specific outcome. Factors that would push toward YES include cooler than normal upper-level atmospheric patterns, sustained cloud cover limiting solar warming potential, or a weak cold front brushing through the region on April 28. Recent April patterns across Northern Europe have trended warmer than 20th-century climate normals, which works structurally against achieving this lower temperature threshold. Factors strongly pushing toward NO include the continuation of spring warming trends, any clearing skies or direct sunshine on April 28, or Atlantic ridge pressure building over the region. Weather forecasts released by KNMI and European modeling services on April 27 will be critical information inputs for any trader reassessing positions. The 0% price implies traders have either consulted April 28 forecast models showing temperatures clearly above or below this specific threshold, or they are heavily discounting the inherent precision challenges required to land at exactly 12°C. This market is part of a daily recurring series tracking Amsterdam temperatures—each calendar day receives its own separate market, creating a distributed dataset of daily high outcomes across the season. The very low trading volume ($1,118 over 24 hours) and moderate liquidity ($6,868 backing) suggest minimal professional participation, meaning the 0% odds may reflect a handful of certain traders rather than broad market consensus. Comparison to similar specific-degree temperature markets on adjacent dates or other European cities shows that precise single-degree targets frequently trade below 5% when they fall outside the typical seasonal range, which validates the current skepticism.
What traders watch for
KNMI forecast models released April 27 will provide high-confidence temperature predictions; check if forecast range includes exactly 12°C possibility.
Cloud cover and solar radiation on April 28 morning determine if warming pushes temperature above 12°C or stays cooler.
Atlantic low-pressure systems or cold fronts on April 28 could push Amsterdam high below 11°C or above 13°C range.
Official daily maximum temperature from Amsterdam Schiphol weather station recorded by day-end April 28; KNMI publishes verified data midnight UTC.
How does this market resolve?
This market resolves YES if and only if Amsterdam's official daily maximum temperature recorded by KNMI weather services on April 28, 2026 equals exactly 12°C Celsius. Resolution occurs after midnight UTC on April 28 when KNMI publishes the day's final verified temperature data.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
