Chengdu, located in Sichuan province, experiences a subtropical humid climate with mild springs. Late April typically brings warm, transitional weather as the region enters early summer, with highs ranging from 20-28°C. The specificity of this market—predicting that the maximum daily temperature will be exactly 25°C—creates a precision challenge that explains the 1% current odds. Temperature forecasting becomes increasingly difficult at granular precision levels, as daily highs depend on cloud cover, humidity, wind patterns, and other microclimate factors. A 25°C high on April 28 falls within Chengdu's seasonal norm for late April, making it plausible from a climatological perspective, but the requirement for an exact reading (rather than a range) makes the outcome statistically unlikely. The very low odds suggest traders are pricing in the improbability of hitting a precise single-degree outcome. With resolution occurring at the actual recorded high for April 28, the market hinges on real meteorological data rather than subjective judgment, giving it clear binary resolution criteria.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Chengdu's climate, heavily influenced by its basin location in central Sichuan and proximity to subtropical systems, exhibits pronounced seasonal variation but generally stable late-spring patterns. April represents a transitional month as the region shifts from spring to early summer, with historical data suggesting April highs averaging 22-26°C. The city's geography—nestled in the Sichuan Basin with elevation around 500 meters—creates localized temperature patterns influenced by valley wind circulation and moisture from nearby rivers. Modern meteorological records from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, the primary weather station, provide precise daily high and low readings used for market resolution. Factors that could result in a 25°C high include typical late-April cloud cover, moderate afternoon sunshine, and seasonal humidity patterns that tend to moderate extreme temperatures. When spring systems dominate, a mild front or continued spring atmospheric conditions might keep highs near the seasonal average. Conversely, several variables could push actual highs above or below the 25°C target: stronger-than-normal high-pressure systems could drive readings to 27-30°C, while unexpected cool fronts pushing southward could suppress highs to 18-22°C. Even small variations in cloud timing, dew point, wind speed, and solar intensity can shift the daily maximum by 2-3 degrees in either direction. The 1% odds reflect not just seasonal climate expectations but also the inherent uncertainty in weather prediction and the statistical improbability of hitting an exact single-degree outcome. Daily temperatures almost never end on round numbers; April 28 highs are far more likely to be 24°C, 26°C, or 27°C than precisely 25°C. This continuous distribution of outcomes, rather than discrete buckets, explains why markets on exact temperatures attract minimal participation and extreme odds. The market structure—resolving to actual meteorological data from Chengdu's official weather station—creates an objective, unambiguous criterion but one that traders clearly view as nearly impossible to forecast accurately. Historical precedent from similar daily temperature markets demonstrates that precision market outcomes consistently attract minimal trading interest and extreme odds because real weather systems generate continuous variation rather than landing predictably on round numbers. The very low volume and tight liquidity further underscore the limited market appetite for such a statistically improbable outcome.
What traders watch for
Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport's official daily maximum reading on April 28 determines market resolution; readings are recorded as whole degrees, not decimals.
Seasonal April weather in Sichuan typically produces highs between 22-26°C; a 25°C outcome requires conditions near the seasonal midpoint.
April 28 morning cloud cover, afternoon solar intensity, and wind patterns will be the primary factors determining whether the high reaches 25°C or deviates.
Meteorological historical data shows daily temperature readings almost never settle on exact integer values; precision market outcomes are statistically improbable.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves on April 28, 2026 at 00:00 UTC based on the official recorded maximum daily temperature from Chengdu's primary weather station. Resolution is YES if the high equals exactly 25°C, NO otherwise.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
