Seoul's daily weather for April 28, 2026 will be resolved using the official Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) records for the highest temperature recorded in the Seoul metropolitan area on that date. Late April in Seoul typically experiences temperatures between 12–20°C as the region transitions fully into spring. A daily high of exactly 10°C would represent markedly cooler-than-normal conditions, potentially driven by cold fronts moving southward across the Korean peninsula or unusual seasonal weather system disruptions. The current 0% YES odds reflect trader conviction that the actual recorded high will diverge significantly from this specific temperature point, a view consistent with both the inherent difficulty of weather precision and established seasonal patterns for Seoul in late April. As April 28 approaches, the market will track updated forecasts from KMA and other meteorological services, giving traders opportunities to refine positions based on evolving weather predictions. The small 24-hour trading volume ($1,950) and modest liquidity ($5,037) suggest a niche, specialized market attracting focused weather traders rather than general market participants.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Seoul's climate in late April is characterized by transition from spring's early warmth into consistent mild-to-warm temperatures. The city averages daily highs between 18–24°C in late April under typical conditions, with overnight lows around 10–14°C. A daily high of exactly 10°C would represent a significant cold outlier, requiring either a strong polar air mass incursion from the north or an unusually active trough of low pressure tracking across the Korean peninsula. Historically, Seoul does experience such cold snaps even in late April, though they are relatively uncommon—perhaps occurring once every 3–5 years in the April 20–30 window. For the market to resolve YES, several meteorological factors would need to align. A cold front would need to push southward from Siberia with sufficient strength and timing to suppress the daily high to exactly 10°C, and crucially, temperatures would need to peak at precisely that level rather than 9°C or 11°C. In practical terms, sustained cloud cover, persistent northeasterly winds, and minimal solar radiation during daylight hours would create the cooling environment necessary. Recent years have shown Seoul experiencing one or two significant April cold events per decade, but these typically bottom out at 8–12°C highs rather than hitting exact targets. The much more likely scenario—reflected in the 0% odds—is that Seoul's April 28 high falls within the normal 15–22°C range, driven by a deeper understanding of seasonal heating patterns and atmospheric circulation. An early-spring Bermuda high or established ridge of high pressure would steer weather systems south of the Korean peninsula, allowing southeasterly flows to advect warmer air northward. Historical data from Korea Meteorological Administration archives shows that April 28 highs in Seoul have ranged from 8°C during the coldest anomalies to 26°C during the warmest years, with a median around 18°C. The zero percent odds also reflect the mathematical improbability of hitting an exact temperature threshold in a continuous distribution. Even if a cold event occurred, the probability of the daily high resolving to precisely 10°C rather than 10.2°C or 9.8°C is infinitesimal given the granularity of weather instrument readings and daily variations.
What traders watch for
Korea Meteorological Administration's April 27–28 forecast and its cold weather warnings for Seoul region
Tracking Arctic cold front progression and strength across the Korean peninsula leading up to April 28
Official KMA hourly temperature readings recorded in Seoul on April 28 through midnight UTC
Weather satellite and atmospheric models showing sustained cloud cover and northeasterly wind patterns on April 28
How does this market resolve?
This market resolves based on the official Korea Meteorological Administration record of the highest temperature in Seoul on April 28, 2026, with resolution confirmed by midnight UTC. The market resolves YES only if the daily maximum temperature equals exactly 10°C; all other temperatures resolve NO.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
