Taipei's weather on April 28 falls in the tail end of spring, when temperatures typically range from 24 to 28°C depending on atmospheric conditions and monsoon influences. The market asks whether the day's highest temperature will be precisely 25°C, an outcome traders currently assign near-zero probability. This precision requirement—not a range like 24-26°C, but exactly 25—explains the low odds; continuous temperature measurements rarely align perfectly with whole-number targets. April in Taipei is characterized by increasing warmth and transitional weather patterns as the summer monsoon season approaches. The 0% odds reflect market skepticism about exact-value weather outcomes, where even small variations in cloud cover, wind, or humidity shift temperatures by fractions of a degree. Official resolution depends on readings from Taipei's Central Weather Administration, which maintains the authoritative temperature record.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Taipei's April climate sits at a critical seasonal transition between spring and early summer. As solar radiation strengthens and winter monsoon patterns fade, the city experiences rising temperatures driven by increasing solar exposure and shifting atmospheric circulation. Historical meteorological data shows April highs in Taipei typically cluster between 25 and 28°C, with the distribution skewing noticeably toward the warmer end of this range as the month progresses toward May. April 28 specifically falls late in the month, a period when conditions typically lean decidedly warmer than early April, making exactly 25°C represent the cooler boundary of expected outcomes. Several distinct meteorological factors could potentially push temperatures toward 25°C: strong northeast monsoon remnants persisting from winter, increased cloud cover limiting solar heating, or cooler-than-average air masses from the north. Conversely—and more commonly for late April—clear skies, stronger easterly winds bringing maritime warmth, consistent strong solar radiation, and typical late-April atmospheric patterns push conditions well above 25°C toward the 26–28°C range traders more commonly observe historically. Detailed analysis of recent years shows Taipei's April temperature records rarely landing on exact whole-degree values; most daily observations record highs of 25.3, 26.7, 27.1°C or similar decimal values. This continuous-value characteristic reflects how weather systems operate: temperatures shift smoothly through decimal gradations rather than hitting round numbers precisely. The market's 0% odds powerfully reflect this empirical reality: weather is fundamentally a continuous variable, and the probability of final measurements equaling exactly 25°C is substantially lower than hitting nearby ranges. The modest 24-hour volume of $1,965 and liquidity of $5,757 are typical for precision-based daily weather markets, which appeal primarily to weather enthusiasts and statistical traders. Resolution ultimately depends on Taiwan's Central Weather Administration's official measurement methodology, sensor placement standards, and data validation procedures.
What traders watch for
Official weather forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration released several days before April 28 provide key guidance.
Northeast monsoon activity and wind pattern shifts from mid-April significantly influence April 28 temperature outcomes.
Cloud cover, atmospheric pressure systems, and humidity on April 28 directly determine the day's maximum temperature.
Historical April temperature patterns in Taipei from prior years show typical clustering toward 26-28°C, not exactly 25°C.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves based on the official highest temperature recorded by Taiwan's Central Weather Administration in Taipei on April 28, 2026 local time. The market resolves YES only if that maximum temperature is exactly 25°C; all other outcomes resolve NO.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
