The US-Iran prediction markets track consensus forecasts on some of the most closely watched geopolitical developments. These markets reflect traders' probabilistic assessments of potential military escalation, diplomatic negotiations, official announcements, and shifts in international relations between the United States and Iran. Market questions span several key categories: official military declarations, policy announcements from US leadership, diplomatic breakthroughs, and timeline-specific scenarios. The price of each outcome reflects real-time market sentiment—higher prices indicate greater probability consensus among traders. Several factors drive prices in these markets. Breaking news about military positioning, official statements from US or Iranian leadership, and developments in diplomatic channels create immediate price movement. Traders monitor geopolitical indicators including sanctions decisions, nuclear negotiations, military activity in the Persian Gulf region, and international alliance dynamics. Historical precedent and past policy statements provide traders with context for assessing future probability. News cycles can create sharp price swings in near-term markets, while longer-dated forecasts allow traders to price in broader structural factors: nuclear deal status, regional stability, domestic political transitions, and historical patterns of escalation and de-escalation. Markets with precise resolution criteria require careful attention to exact wording to determine outcomes. Prediction markets like these serve as real-time probability aggregators. By observing price movements, you can see how major geopolitical events shift expectations and understand which scenarios the forecasting community considers more or less likely. These markets offer transparent, dynamic pricing on significant international relations questions.