No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

The market is pricing the probability of the Bank of Japan holding rates unchanged at its April 28 meeting, with the NO side (66%) commanding strong consensus—indicating traders expect the BOJ to deliver a rate hike or policy adjustment. The 5% decline in the YES price over 24 hours reflects recent momentum toward tightening expectations, likely driven by persistent inflation pressures and global rate divergence. The catalyst is the April BOJ policy decision itself on April 28th; any hawkish signals or inflation data between now and then could accelerate the move toward rate change.