About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 36% YES. Momentum is falling. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$177.78 (+178%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability36.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: FallingVolume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Momentum: Falling
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$12K
Liquidity$12K
Current Probability36%
Resolves in21mo
Low VolatilityVol: 6.9% → 3.7%
632 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets6
AI Brief
SpaceX IPO probability markets show a consensus valuation range of $1.5T-$2.4T, with 94% confidence the company clears $1T but only 36% believing it reaches $2.4T. The $2T threshold sits near fair value at 36% YES. Catalysts are Starship milestones and September 2026 IPO window timing; the -10.5% move on the June 15 deadline suggests delay risk.