US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
Outcome uncertain — market split near 45% YES. Momentum is rising. Informed flow observed.
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For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
- Price moved +0.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Rising
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31 faces headwinds with the market pricing a 56% probability of no deal within the next two months, though 24h trading volume of $391k reflects sustained geopolitical uncertainty. The +5% price move suggests modest optimism around diplomatic channels, but the tight 4-week window limits room for escalation to de-escalate. Watch Trump's diplomatic engagement and any direct US-Iran communications as the primary catalyst.