US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans YES at 75%. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$33.33 (+33%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability75.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +1.0%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice stable for 26 days
- Price moved +1.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$112K
Liquidity$159K
Current Probability75%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.7% → 1.2%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
Majority expects US-Iran ceasefire by year-end (76%), reflecting belief in diplomatic off-ramps available over eight months; contrast to April 30 expiry (near-zero odds) suggests traders see summer-plus timeline as critical for de-escalation.