US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 41% YES. Momentum is rising. Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$143.90 (+144%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability41.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: RisingVolume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActiveFresh market
- Momentum: Rising
- Volume trend: rising
- Price move: Price moved down to 38.6% from 41.5% baseline — 7% shift
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$84K
Liquidity$32K
Current Probability41%
Resolves in1mo
Low VolatilityVol: 3.6% → 2.3%
37 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Good entry point — prices are stable with room to move
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AI Brief
The US-Iran ceasefire by May 15 sits at 41% YES with just over a month until expiration, reflecting genuine diplomatic uncertainty amid Trump administration engagement but entrenched tensions over nuclear and regional issues. Near-term catalysts include any new escalation or breakthrough in backchannel negotiations, with the tight deadline limiting options for extended negotiations.
Anomalies
WarningPricez=3.3