Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 33% YES. Momentum is strong up. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$203.03 (+203%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability33.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Strong up24h Price Change: +5.0%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price jumped +5.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong up
- Volume trend: rising
- Price move: Price moved up to 30.9% from 23.3% baseline — 33% shift
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$84K
Liquidity$33K
Current Probability33%
Resolves in1mo
Low VolatilityVol: 14.7% → 6.8%
53 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets3
AI Brief
Kharg Island, Iran's largest oil export hub, has a 22% probability of falling from Iranian control by May 31—a span of roughly eight weeks. The -6% 24h price drop signals deteriorating odds for Iranian retention, pointing to active geopolitical risk pricing and recent negative developments.
Anomalies
WarningPricez=2.8