About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 71% NO. Momentum is strong up. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$233.33 (+233%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability30.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Strong up24h Price Change: +15.0%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price jumped +15.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong up
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$51K
Liquidity$25K
Current Probability30%
Resolves in1mo
Low VolatilityVol: 30.8% → 13.2%
53 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets3
AI Brief
Iran leadership change by May 31 is priced at 16% with 7 weeks to resolution, capturing a modest tail risk of regime instability or succession crisis in the Islamic Republic. The +1% move upward suggests recent geopolitical developments have marginally increased perceived volatility around Iranian succession.