About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 38% YES. Momentum is strong up. Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$163.16 (+163%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability38.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Strong up24h Price Change: +19.5%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice forming
- Price jumped +19.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong up
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$48K
Liquidity$29K
Current Probability38%
Resolves in2mo
Low VolatilityVol: 30.3% → 13.0%
83 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets3
AI Brief
Iranian leadership change by June 30 sits at 38% YES, the market heavily discounting sudden death, coup, or succession crisis in the next 2.5 months. The position declined 1% in 24 hours, suggesting traders are growing more skeptical of near-term change. No immediate catalysts on the horizon despite underlying geopolitical tensions.